The gamblers fallacy and casino maths

casino maths

There are a lot of misconceptions in gambling and over the years, there are a lot of techniques and beliefs many gamblers have attributed to it. However, some things are true and others are completely false. It also depends on the certain type of application of the strategy but the most significant part is how you see gambling and perceive the overall picture of the game. Gambling fallacy is the perception that gamblers hold about the game and believe can change or influence the results of the game. They believe that the decisions are to be made based on this.

What are gambling fallacies?

Fallacies are beliefs that the outcome of gambling can be determined if one was to concentrate on the past occurrences of the game. It subdues the individual result of the game and bases the understanding of the frequent occurrences of the results. Even though the beliefs are false, the players will take action based on that. They think a certain kind of result in the past will influence the game results and this can be used to their advantage. There have been various researches that have concluded that even though there can be variance on the results, there are a lot of factors that come in to play when you are gambling and every game has the probability of giving a different result irrespective of the past. Such beliefs are formed as the mind tries to make sense of the uncertainty and makes calculations based on that. Numbers are the heart of the game.



For every gamble that a player makes, there is a lot in cation. Maths is the central thing in all that and casino owners have the Expected value (EV) to determine the ration in a bet. If in a bet the outcome is likely to be equal, the EV will be 0. However, the EV applies differently to different games, and based on that the outcome is predicted. When you can find the expected value, the gamblers can find the games that are best fit to give out the value in their favor. Some games require skill and the EV si balanced. In Blackjack, you can get a positive EV by counting cards.

How it is measured?

Fallacies are common. To assess this situation, there have been various studies that have shown that it happens for a variety of reasons. The fallacies are measured by the gambling Fallacies Measure (GFM). This is a questionnaire where you every question has a right answer and if you score high on the scale, then you will have a higher resistance to the fallacy. Over the years, the test has been carried on more than 13000 people. The belief in fallacies has given birth to the gambling problem and it overlooks the randomization and individual character of the outcomes. This will reflect poorly or may not turn out to be what you wanted it to be.


Gambling fallacy may work in some situations, but there are a lot of factors that determine your win in a gambling duel. Preparation is one of them.